Election Prophesy for Beginners

‘The World in 2019’ tells us what to expect

Normally I read the The Economist The World in 2109 towards the end of the year. I wait until December to match prediction with actuality but I was waiting to have my car washed so I took the opportunity.

Has Israel dropped off the Economist’s radar? There was very little and what there was mostly on the upcoming elections, advanced half a year from scheduled date.  I guess the crystal ball was a little blurry from the London fog.
That was in November 2018. In March 2019 things look different

  1. Is name calling professional journalism? Yisrael Katz and Gideon Sa’ar are experienced members of Knesset and former or current ministers. Brushing-off either as hacks at least requires some evidence.
  2. Defeat by Labor? Chalk that up to wishful thinking. Opinion polls in Israel (indeed, everywhere, ask Hilary Clinton,) are notoriously unreliable but the latest show Labor as winning only seven (7) seats down from the eighteen (18) they now hold.
  3. Takeover by Moshe Kahlon or Naftali Bennett is equally unlikely. Kulanu (Kahlon) is dangerously close to missing out on the Knesset and the New Right (Bennett) is safer polling at six (6) seat but hardly a threat.
  4. Possibly no one could have prophesied the rise of Blue & White under political newcomer, former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, current MK Yair Lapid, former Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon with a third former Chief of Staff Ashkenazi tagging along but isn’t that what The World in 2019 does, prophesy?

About David Guy

B.A./B.C.A. (Communication and Media Arts) University of Wollongong, AUSTRALIA M.A. in Government (Diplomacy and Conflict Studies) Inter Disciplinary Center, Herzliya, ISRAEL Twitter @5MFI
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